NFL Week 5

footballEvil’s Week 5 Bets and Picks

I’ve noticed a pattern. Week 4 is always bad for my picks. My analysis doesn’t directly take injuries into account and I think they max out about week 4. One of these days when I have some of that magical and mystical stuff we call free time, I’m going to write some software to do a deeper analysis. Lack of free time is why I don’t watch college football. I already spend maximum time on the 32 teams of the NFL. If I started watching all six hunnit and fiddy teams in college I would need to be retired.

Another bet I would have put real money on went down the tubes last week. My boy’s team, Philly, were completely unable to stop Denver as they ran, passed, rolled unabated to the end zone. So much for the under bet there. Denver almost took it over all by themselves.

The only game I nailed last week was in Minnesota. Meh.

However, in the true failure category I was stunning. The machine was predicting Da Bears to go 15-1 this season. I can tell you now why that won’t happen. NO team who got beat by Detroit EVER managed to beat all the other teams they faced. Someone can look that stat up and tell me if I’m wrong, good luck. The worst part of this: I had to do a strength of victory analysis to decide if Detroit makes the playoffs. Of course, they don’t and I suspect Green Bay will fix it so I never have to do that calculation again this year.

In Tampa I guess it was too hot for Arizona to play. Hmm… maybe it was too humid. Either way, it was bad for them and worse for me.

There are two good bets this week. The computer still has faith in the idea that Jacksonville will pull their heads out of wherever they are now and put them back into their helmets. Also, it notes that while Denver has managed to really crush some teams out there, the teams they crushed were not Dallas. Peyton et al will not be surprised by this, but the Denver fan boys in Vegas will. Dallas will cover the spread by beating Denver. I also noticed that the Cincinnati fan boys appear to be in Vegas with money to lose. The line is 1 point. New England will roll over them like a Zamboni on ice.

My take:

Away

Home

Away

Home

Favorite

Line

O/U

Buffalo

Cleveland

18

22

Cleveland

4

40

New Orleans

Chicago

23

25

Chicago

2

48

New England

Cincinnati

26

21

New England

5

47

Jacksonville

St. Louis

20

21

St. Louis

1

42

Baltimore

Miami

20

20

Miami

1

40

Philadelphia

NY Giants

21

26

NY Giants

5

47

Detroit

Green Bay

22

30

Green Bay

8

51

Kansas City

Tennessee

18

21

Tennessee

3

39

Seattle

Indianapolis

20

21

Indianapolis

0

41

Carolina

Arizona

21

24

Arizona

3

44

Denver

Dallas

23

25

Dallas

3

48

San Diego

Oakland

25

23

San Diego

2

48

Houston

San Francisco

19

24

San Francisco

5

44

NY Jets

Atlanta

19

25

Atlanta

6

45

Vegas this week:

Favorite

Line

O/U

Bet

O/U

None

None

New Orleans

1

50

Chicago

Under

New England

1

45.5

New England

Over

St. Louis

11

41.5

Jacksonville

Over

Miami

2.5

43.5

Baltimore

Under

NY Giants

1.5

54

NY Giants

Under

Green Bay

7

54

Green Bay

Under

Kansas City

3

39

Tennessee

Over

Seattle

3

43.5

Indianapolis

Under

Carolina

2

42.5

Arizona

Over

Denver

7.5

57

Dallas

Under

San Diego

4.5

46

Oakland

Over

San Francisco

5.5

42

Houston

Over

Atlanta

10

44

NY Jets

Over

E.W.

I blame everything that I got wrong last week on the impending shutdown of the federal government.

 

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