NFL Week 3

So much for positive territory in gambling. Of course, if my modeling is correct I should be down 3.20 on the dollar. Actually I’m down 4.80, which would be bad, if I were dumb enough to take even odds bets. At least I called the winner for 10 games.

This week the computer actually flagged 3 good bets, been a long time since that happened. The computer says Minnesota will not only cover the spread, but will stomp Detroit. My modeling doesn’t take into account injuries directly and I haven’t looked yet, but did Minnesota lose a star player last week? I didn’t even know they had a star player.

Then the computer says take the under bet in New England vs Buffalo, neither of these teams are going to do all that scoring.

Finally, and this one is suspect, it says Indianapolis will cover the 10 point spread against Pittsburgh by actually beating them. I guess that would depend on the team pulling their heads out of their asses and realizing that Manning was only 1/22 of the team. Granted he was a very good 1/22 piece but no where near the whole team.

Away Home Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Jacksonville Carolina 19 22 Carolina 3 40
Denver Tennessee 20 24 Tennessee 4 43
Houston New Orleans 21 26 New Orleans 4 47
Detroit Minnesota 18 26 Minnesota 9 44
NY Giants Philadelphia 21 25 Philadelphia 4 46
New England Buffalo 24 18 New England 6 41
Miami Cleveland 19 17 Miami 3 36
San Francisco Cincinnati 17 19 Cincinnati 2 36
NY Jets Oakland 23 19 NY Jets 3 42
Baltimore St. Louis 22 17 Baltimore 5 38
Kansas City San Diego 18 26 San Diego 8 44
Atlanta Tampa Bay 24 20 Atlanta 4 44
Green Bay Chicago 23 22 Green Bay 1 44
Arizona Seattle 19 23 Seattle 4 42
Pittsburgh Indianapolis 20 21 Indianapolis 2 41
Washington Dallas 19 24 Dallas 5 43

Vegas lines:

Favorite Line O/U Bet O/U
Carolina 3.5 43.0 Jacksonville Under
Tennessee 7.0 42.5 Denver Over
New Orleans 4.0 52.0 New Orleans Under
Detroit 3.0 45.0 Minnesota Under
Philadelphia 8.5 48.0 NY Giants Under
New England 7.0 54.0 Buffalo Under
Cleveland 2.0 41.5 Miami Under
Cincinnati 2.5 40.0 San Francisco Under
NY Jets 3.0 41.0 NY Jets Over
Baltimore 5.0 42.0 Baltimore Under
San Diego 14.5 44.5 Kansas City Under
Tampa Bay 1.5 45.5 Atlanta Under
Green Bay 4.0 45.5 Chicago Under
Arizona 3.5 43.0 Seattle Under
Pittsburgh 10.0 39.5 Indianapolis Over
Dallas 4.5 45.5 Dallas Under

E.W.

Ok after looking at the news, it would appear that the gamblers’ idea of Minnesota is, after getting beat by  a team that far outclasses them, then beat by a mediocre team, they’re done?  I’d put real money on my bet.