NFL Week 2

First a recap of Preseason Week 4 and Regular Season Week 1:

Preseason Week 4

My predictions:

 

Away Home Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Detroit Buffalo 17 24 Buffalo 7 41
NY Jets Philadelphia 17 20 Philadelphia 3 37
Atlanta Baltimore 20 20 Baltimore 0 40
St. Louis Kansas City 20 26 Kansas City 6 46
New England NY Giants 24 17 New England 7 41
Cincinnati Indianapolis 20 27 Indianapolis 7 47
Jacksonville Washington 17 24 Washington 7 41
Carolina Pittsburgh 17 23 Pittsburgh 6 40
Tennessee Green Bay 20 20 Green Bay 0 40
Chicago Cleveland 20 17 Chicago 3 37
Minnesota Dallas 17 24 Dallas 7 41
Miami New Orleans 20 17 Miami 3 37
Tampa Bay Houston 20 23 Houston 3 43
Denver Arizona 26 27 Arizona 1 53
San Diego San Francisco 27 17 San Diego 10 44
Oakland Seattle 16 27 Seattle 11 43

Vegas predictions:

 

Away Home Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Detroit Buffalo Buffalo 3.0 33.5 15.3 18.3
NY Jets Philadelphia Philadelphia 3.0 35.5 16.3 19.3
Atlanta Baltimore Baltimore 2.5 33.0 15.3 17.8
St. Louis Kansas City Kansas City 5.0 34.0 14.5 19.5
New England NY Giants NY Giants 2.5 35.0 16.3 18.8
Cincinnati Indianapolis Indianapolis 3.0 34.5 15.8 18.8
Jacksonville Washington Washington 3.0 34.0 15.5 18.5
Carolina Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 3.5 35.0 15.8 19.3
Tennessee Green Bay Tennessee 6.5 36.0 21.3 14.8
Chicago Cleveland Cleveland 3.0 38.0 17.5 20.5
Minnesota Dallas Dallas 3.0 34.0 15.5 18.5
Miami New Orleans New Orleans 1.0 35.0 17.0 18.0
Tampa Bay Houston Houston 0.0 36.5 18.3 18.3
Denver Arizona Arizona 3.0 37.5 17.3 20.3
San Diego San Francisco San Francisco 2.5 35.5 16.5 19.0
Oakland Seattle Seattle 3.0 36.0 16.5 19.5

Bets:

 

Away Home Bet O/U
Detroit Buffalo Buffalo Over
NY Jets Philadelphia None Over
Atlanta Baltimore Atlanta Over
St. Louis Kansas City Kansas City Over
New England NY Giants New England Over
Cincinnati Indianapolis Indianapolis Over
Jacksonville Washington Washington Over
Carolina Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Over
Tennessee Green Bay Green Bay Over
Chicago Cleveland Chicago Under
Minnesota Dallas Dallas Over
Miami New Orleans Miami Over
Tampa Bay Houston Houston Over
Denver Arizona Denver Over
San Diego San Francisco San Diego Over
Oakland Seattle Seattle Over

Good bets, if you’re nuts:

Arizona vs. Denver will go over

San Diego will stomp San Fran, thus covering the spread. Makes me wonder if Vegas has a typo on their web site.

Outcome:

 

Away Home Winner Away Home Bet O/U
Detroit Buffalo Detroit 14 6 Detroit Under
NY Jets Philadelphia NY Jets 27 20 NY Jets Over
Atlanta Baltimore Atlanta 10 9 Atlanta Under
St. Louis Kansas City Kansas City 17 21 St. Louis Over
New England NY Giants NY Giants 14 19 NY Giants Under
Cincinnati Indianapolis Cincinnati 27 7 Cincinnati Under
Jacksonville Washington Jacksonville 24 3 Jacksonville Under
Carolina Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 16 19 Carolina Push
Tennessee Green Bay Tennessee 23 21 Green Bay Over
Chicago Cleveland Chicago 16 10 Chicago Under
Minnesota Dallas Dallas 10 16 Dallas Under
Miami New Orleans Miami 14 10 Miami Under
Tampa Bay Houston Tampa Bay 16 6 Tampa Bay Under
Denver Arizona Denver 28 14 Denver Over
San Diego San Francisco San Diego 20 17 San Diego Over
Oakland Seattle Seattle 16 23 Seattle Over

Well, I only called 7 games. However, I did call both good bets.

 

Week 1

My predictions:

 

Away Home Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Washington NY Giants 17 20 NY Giants 3 37
NY Jets Miami 17 17 Miami 0 34
Detroit Atlanta 20 27 Atlanta 7 47
Jacksonville Tennessee 24 23 Jacksonville 1 47
Tampa Bay New Orleans 17 17 New Orleans 0 34
St. Louis Philadelphia 20 20 Philadelphia 0 40
Houston Pittsburgh 17 24 Pittsburgh 7 41
Kansas City New England 17 27 New England 10 44
Cincinnati Baltimore 20 20 Baltimore 0 40
Seattle Buffalo 24 20 Seattle 4 44
Dallas Cleveland 27 17 Dallas 10 44
Arizona San Francisco 20 20 San Francisco 0 40
Carolina San Diego 20 24 San Diego 4 44
Chicago Indianapolis 20 24 Indianapolis 4 44
Minnesota Green Bay 17 20 Green Bay 3 37
Denver Oakland 20 17 Denver 3 37

Vegas predictions:

 

Away Home Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Washington NY Giants NY Giants 3.5 41.0 18.8 22.3
NY Jets Miami NY Jets 3.0 36.5 19.8 16.8
Detroit Atlanta Detroit 3.0 41.0 22.0 19.0
Jacksonville Tennessee Jacksonville 3.0 37.0 20.0 17.0
Tampa Bay New Orleans New Orleans 3.5 43.0 19.8 23.3
St. Louis Philadelphia Philadelphia 7.0 44.0 18.5 25.5
Houston Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 6.5 43.5 18.5 25.0
Kansas City New England New England 16.5 46.5 15.0 31.5
Cincinnati Baltimore Cincinnati 1.0 39.5 20.3 19.3
Seattle Buffalo Buffalo 0.0 39.5 19.8 19.8
Dallas Cleveland Dallas 4.0 49.0 26.5 22.5
Arizona San Francisco Arizona 3.0 41.5 22.3 19.3
Carolina San Diego San Diego 9.5 42.5 16.5 26.0
Chicago Indianapolis Indianapolis 9.5 44.0 17.3 26.8
Minnesota Green Bay Green Bay 3.0 38.5 17.8 20.8
Denver Oakland Oakland 3.0 41.5 19.3 22.3

Bets:

Away Home Bet O/U
Washington NY Giants Washington Under
NY Jets Miami Miami Under
Detroit Atlanta Atlanta Over
Jacksonville Tennessee Tennessee Over
Tampa Bay New Orleans Tampa Bay Under
St. Louis Philadelphia St. Louis Under
Houston Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Under
Kansas City New England Kansas City Under
Cincinnati Baltimore Baltimore Over
Seattle Buffalo Seattle Over
Dallas Cleveland Dallas Under
Arizona San Francisco San Francisco Under
Carolina San Diego Carolina Over
Chicago Indianapolis Chicago None
Minnesota Green Bay None Under
Denver Oakland Denver Under

Good bets:

The computer didn’t flag any. This is a bad sign, either I have a bug in my software or the average Joe in Vegas is getting smarter…

Outcome:

Away Home Winner Away Home Bet O/U
Washington NY Giants NY Giants 7 16 NY Giants Under
NY Jets Miami NY Jets 20 14 NY Jets Under
Detroit Atlanta Atlanta 21 34 Atlanta Over
Jacksonville Tennessee Tennessee 10 17 Tennessee Under
Tampa Bay New Orleans New Orleans 20 24 New Orleans Over
St. Louis Philadelphia Philadelphia 3 38 Philadelphia Under
Houston Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 17 38 Pittsburgh Over
Kansas City New England New England 10 17 Kansas City Under
Cincinnati Baltimore Baltimore 10 17 Baltimore Under
Seattle Buffalo Buffalo 10 34 Buffalo Over
Dallas Cleveland Dallas 28 10 Dallas Under
Arizona San Francisco Arizona 23 13 Arizona Under
Carolina San Diego Carolina 26 24 Carolina Over
Chicago Indianapolis Chicago 29 13 Chicago Under
Minnesota Green Bay Green Bay 19 24 Green Bay Over
Denver Oakland Denver 41 14 Denver Over

I called 10 games, not bad, but not great either. I called better than half the bets, 18 of 30, that would put me in the black.

Week 2

My predictions:

 

Away Home Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Chicago Carolina 20 17 Chicago 3 37
Tennessee Cincinnati 20 27 Cincinnati 7 47
Green Bay Detroit 26 20 Green Bay 6 46
Buffalo Jacksonville 10 27 Jacksonville 17 37
Oakland Kansas City 19 26 Kansas City 7 45
Indianapolis Minnesota 20 23 Minnesota 3 43
NY Giants St. Louis 27 17 NY Giants 10 44
New Orleans Washington 17 23 Washington 6 40
San Francisco Seattle 17 27 Seattle 10 44
Atlanta Tampa Bay 17 17 Tampa Bay 0 34
Miami Arizona 20 27 Arizona 7 47
San Diego Denver 23 17 San Diego 6 40
Baltimore Houston 20 20 Houston 0 40
New England NY Jets 24 20 New England 4 44
Pittsburgh Cleveland 17 17 Pittsburgh 0 34
Philadelphia Dallas 23 27 Dallas 4 50

Vegas predictions:

 

Away Home Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Chicago Carolina Carolina 3.0 37.5 17.3 20.3
Tennessee Cincinnati Cincinnati 1.5 37.5 18.0 19.5
Green Bay Detroit Green Bay 3.0 45.0 24.0 21.0
Buffalo Jacksonville Jacksonville 6.0 38.0 16.0 22.0
Oakland Kansas City Kansas City 4.0 35.5 15.8 19.8
Indianapolis Minnesota Indianapolis 2.0 43.5 22.8 20.8
NY Giants St. Louis NY Giants 8.5 42.5 25.5 17.0
New Orleans Washington Washington 0.0 42.5 21.3 21.3
San Francisco Seattle Seattle 8.0 39.0 15.5 23.5
Atlanta Tampa Bay Tampa Bay 8.0 38.0 15.0 23.0
Miami Arizona Arizona 7.0 39.5 16.3 23.3
San Diego Denver San Diego 2.0 45.5 23.8 21.8
Baltimore Houston Houston 4.5 37.5 16.5 21.0
New England NY Jets NY Jets 2.5 37.0 17.3 19.8
Pittsburgh Cleveland Pittsburgh 6.0 44.5 25.3 19.3
Philadelphia Dallas Dallas 6.5 47.0 20.3 26.8

Bets:

Away Home Bet O/U
Chicago Carolina Chicago Under
Tennessee Cincinnati Cincinnati Over
Green Bay Detroit Green Bay Over
Buffalo Jacksonville Jacksonville Under
Oakland Kansas City Kansas City Over
Indianapolis Minnesota Minnesota Under
NY Giants St. Louis NY Giants Over
New Orleans Washington Washington Under
San Francisco Seattle Seattle Over
Atlanta Tampa Bay Atlanta Under
Miami Arizona None Over
San Diego Denver San Diego Under
Baltimore Houston Baltimore Over
New England NY Jets New England Over
Pittsburgh Cleveland Cleveland Under
Philadelphia Dallas Philadelphia Over

Good bets:

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville – take Jacks, as Buffalo will find themselves unable to score against the Jacks.

Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland will go under. The boys in Vegas are a little too optimistic about Pittsburgh’s offense.

E.W.

Getting spreadsheets in the blog is gettin’ easier, but it still seems like more work thanit should be.