Football Picks for Preseason Week 4

…And the ones for the Hall of Fame game and the first three preseason weeks. I know what you’re thinking, “Yeah, sure, you’re picking the games AFTER they played…” If you will look at the data, I think my honesty speaks for itself… Ugh, I sure hope these results are because all the coaches finally took my advice and are keeping their starters bubble wrapped safely in the locker room and fielding anybody they think might be a diamond in the rough.

Seriously, if I was a coach, my starters might go out there for 3 or 4 plays with these instructions: If you think that you might break a nail, DROP THE BALL; we ain’t playing for money here. After that, I’d have the Mom of the kid from the hotdog stand, you know, Doris “The Pocket” Tidwell, as left tackle, the peanut tosser would be snapping the ball and the hotdog kid himself would be the QB. My receiver would be that kid I saw outrun the police car in the mall parking lot. “Hey kid… do you think you could catch a football while you’re running like that?” The water boy would be wide right…

I don’t know what the rules are about bringing 9 to 12 hundred potential players to the game, but I figure if you sift through that many wannabe football players you might find that diamond. You know the kid you send out, “Ok I don’t care about accuracy I just wanna see how far you can throw,” that comes back, “Um, I’m sorry coach. I’ll go run out there in the parking lot and find that ball…”

“That’s ok kid, we’ll get another ball… um… what’s your name?”

Here’s the data:

Hall of Fame Week:

My predictions:

 



Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Indianapolis Washington 20 23 Washington 3 43

Vegas line:

 

Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Washington 4.5 31.5 13.5 18.0

Bets:

Indianapolis Over

Good bets: (There ain’t any really, you’re insane if you’re betting the preseason…)

Over on Indianapolis vs Washington

Outcome:

 

Winner Away Home Bet O/U
Washington 16 30 Washington Over

So YAY! On the first week, I have a 100% pick rate, I called the good bet right, advised not taking the points bet. It’s all downhill from here. Seriously downhill. Steeply downhill…

Preseason Week 1

My predictions:

 

    Away Home Favorite Line O/U
New Orleans Arizona 24 27 Arizona 3 51
Kansas City Chicago 17 20 Chicago 3 37
Baltimore New England 17 27 New England 10 44
NY Jets Cleveland 17 17 Cleveland 0 34
NY Giants Detroit 26 17 NY Giants 9 43
San Francisco Oakland 20 17 San Francisco 3 37
Seattle Minnesota 20 20 Minnesota 0 40
Philadelphia Pittsburgh 17 27 Pittsburgh 10 44
Dallas San Diego 20 24 San Diego 4 44
Denver Houston 20 27 Houston 7 47
St. Louis Tennessee 20 20 Tennessee 0 40
Indianapolis Carolina 26 17 Indianapolis 9 43
Atlanta Jacksonville 10 27 Jacksonville 17 37
Tampa Bay Miami 17 17 Miami 0 34
Buffalo Washington 20 20 Washington 0 40
Cincinnati Green Bay 20 20 Cincinnati 0 40


Vegas line:

 

Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Arizona 2.5 35.0 16.3 18.8
Chicago 3.5 34.0 15.3 18.8
New England 3.5 33.5 15.0 18.5
Cleveland 5.0 35.0 15.0 20.0
Detroit 3.0 31.5 14.3 17.3
Oakland 1.0 34.0 16.5 17.5
Minnesota 3.0 34.0 15.5 18.5
Philadelphia 1.5 33.5 17.5 16.0
San Diego 3.0 35.5 16.3 19.3
Houston 3.0 34.5 15.8 18.8
Tennessee 3.0 33.5 15.3 18.3
Carolina 4.0 35.5 15.8 19.8
Jacksonville 4.0 34.0 15.0 19.0
Miami 1.5 31.0 14.8 16.3
Washington 6.0 36.0 15.0 21.0
Green Bay 3.0 35.0 16.0 19.0

Bets:

Arizona Over
Kansas City Over
New England Over
NY Jets Under
NY Giants Over
San Francisco Over
Seattle Over
Pittsburgh Over
San Diego Over
Houston Over
St. Louis Over
Indianapolis Over
Jacksonville Over
Tampa Bay Over
Buffalo Over
Cincinnati Over

Good bets:

Over on New Orleans vs Arizona
Over on Baltimore vs New England
NY Giants will stomp Detroit covering the spread and the game will go over
Pittsburgh will stomp Philly and the game will go over
Indianapolis will stomp Carolina covering the spread, makes me cry writing that…
Jacksonville

Outcome:

 

Winner Away Home Bet O/U
New Orleans 24 10 New Orleans Under
Kansas City 24 20 Kansas City Over
Baltimore 16 15 Baltimore Under
NY Jets 24 20 NY Jets Over
Detroit 10 13 Push Under
Oakland 6 18 Oakland Under
Seattle 34 17 Seattle Over
Pittsburgh 10 16 Pittsburgh Under
San Diego 17 31 San Diego Over
Houston 16 19 Push Over
Tennessee 13 34 Tennessee Over
Carolina 20 23 Indianapolis Over
Jacksonville 17 20 Atlanta Over
Tampa Bay 17 6 Tampa Bay Under
Washington 14 17 Buffalo Under
Cincinnati 20 17 Cincinnati Over

So, I called 7 out of 16 games and 3 out of 9 bets. It was a good week. No, really it was. Check out next week…

Preseason Week 2

My predictions:

 

    Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Carolina Philadelphia 20 20 Carolina 0 40
Pittsburgh Buffalo 24 20 Pittsburgh 4 44
Oakland Tennessee 17 26 Tennessee 9 43
Green Bay San Francisco 20 20 Green Bay 0 40
Chicago Seattle 20 23 Seattle 3 43
Dallas Denver 23 20 Dallas 3 43
San Diego St. Louis 24 23 San Diego 1 47
Arizona Kansas City 20 26 Kansas City 6 46
Houston New Orleans 20 24 New Orleans 4 44
Minnesota Baltimore 20 20 Baltimore 0 40
Miami Jacksonville 19 27 Jacksonville 8 46
Indianapolis Atlanta 27 17 Indianapolis 10 44
Washington NY Jets 17 20 NY Jets 3 37
New England Tampa Bay 24 17 New England 7 41
Detroit Cincinnati 17 27 Cincinnati 10 44
Cleveland NY Giants 20 20 NY Giants 0 40

Vegas line:

 

Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Philadelphia 3.5 36.5 16.5 20.0
Pittsburgh 1.0 33.0 17.0 16.0
Tennessee 4.0 35.5 15.8 19.8
San Francisco 2.5 35.0 16.3 18.8
Chicago 3.0 35.0 19.0 16.0
Denver 2.5 37.0 17.3 19.8
St. Louis 4.0 36.0 16.0 20.0
Kansas City 1.5 38.0 18.3 19.8
New Orleans 3.0 37.5 17.3 20.3
Baltimore 1.5 34.0 16.3 17.8
Jacksonville 3.5 33.5 15.0 18.5
Atlanta 3.0 37.5 17.3 20.3
NY Jets 3.0 36.5 16.8 19.8
Tampa Bay 3.0 33.5 15.3 18.3
Cincinnati 3.5 35.5 16.0 19.5
NY Giants 0.0 36.0 18.0 18.0


Bets:

Carolina Over
Pittsburgh Over
Tennessee Over
Green Bay Over
Seattle Over
Dallas Over
San Diego Over
Kansas City Over
New Orleans Over
Minnesota Over
Jacksonville Over
Indianapolis Over
Over Washington vs NY Jets
New England Over
Cincinnati Over
NY Giants Over

Good Bets:

Over Pittsburgh vs Buffalo
Over San Diego vs St. Louis
Over Miami vs Jacksonville
Indianapolis will stomp Atlanta and cover the spread (Why does Vegas hate Indy? Their receivers missing fingers? QB have a broken leg?)

Outcome:

 

Winner Away Home Bet O/U
Philadelphia 13 24 Philadelphia Over
Buffalo 21 24 Buffalo Over
Tennessee 16 17 Oakland Under
San Francisco 6 34 San Francisco Over
Seattle 26 29 Seattle Over
Denver 13 23 Denver Under
St. Louis 6 7 San Diego Under
Arizona 27 17 Arizona Over
Houston 31 27 Houston Over
Minnesota 23 15 Minnesota Over
Miami 19 14 Miami Under
Indianapolis 16 9 Indianapolis Under
Washington 13 10 Washington Under
Tampa Bay 10 27 Tampa Bay Over
Detroit 27 10 Detroit Over
NY Giants 34 37 NY Giants Over

Well, the betting improved… 50%, I’ll take it. And with any luck you stopped reading at that point and didn’t notice that I called only 4 games…

What happened to St. Louis and San Diego’s offense? Did San Diego’s offense miss the plane to San Diego?

 

Preseason Week 3

My predictions:

 

    Away Home Favorite Line O/U
San Francisco Chicago 17 27 Chicago 10 44
Philadelphia New England 17 27 New England 10 44
Tennessee Atlanta 20 20 Atlanta 0 40
Houston Dallas 17 24 Dallas 7 41
Green Bay Denver 20 20 Denver 0 40
Cleveland Detroit 20 20 Detroit 0 40
NY Giants NY Jets 26 20 NY Giants 6 46
Kansas City Miami 17 20 Miami 3 37
Washington Carolina 17 17 Carolina 0 34
Jacksonville Tampa Bay 17 23 Tampa Bay 6 40
New Orleans Cincinnati 24 27 Cincinnati 3 51
Pittsburgh Minnesota 20 20 Pittsburgh 0 40
Baltimore St. Louis 17 20 St. Louis 3 37
Arizona Oakland 20 20 Arizona 0 40
Buffalo Indianapolis 20 27 Indianapolis 7 47
Seattle San Diego 17 27 San Diego 10 44

Vegas line:

Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Chicago 3.0 37.0 17.0 20.0
New England 3.0 37.5 17.3 20.3
Atlanta 3.0 34.0 15.5 18.5
Dallas 3.5 40.0 18.3 21.8
Denver 3.0 37.5 17.3 20.3
Detroit 3.0 41.0 19.0 22.0
NY Jets 3.0 38.0 17.5 20.5
Miami 3.0 34.0 15.5 18.5
Carolina 3.0 36.0 16.5 19.5
Jacksonville 2.0 34.5 18.3 16.3
New Orleans 2.5 42.0 22.3 19.8
Pittsburgh 2.5 37.0 19.8 17.3
St. Louis 2.0 35.5 16.8 18.8
Oakland 3.0 37.0 17.0 20.0
Indianapolis 3.5 37.0 16.8 20.3
San Diego 3.5 39.5 18.0 21.5

Bets:

Chicago Over
New England Over
Tennessee Over
Dallas Over
Green Bay Over
Cleveland Under
NY Giants Over
Over on Kansas City vs Miami
Washington Under
Tampa Bay Over
Cincinnati Over
Minnesota Over
St. Louis Over
Arizona Over
Indianapolis Over
San Diego Over

Good bets:

The computer didn’t flag any good bets. If I was crazy and putting money on the preseason my wallet would thank the computer today.

Outcome:

 

Winner Away Home Bet O/U
San Francisco 37 30 San Francisco Over
Philadelphia 27 17 Philadelphia Over
Atlanta 3 17 Atlanta Under
Dallas 22 23 Houston Over
Green Bay 27 24 Green Bay Over
Detroit 6 26 Detroit Under
NY Jets 7 10 Push Under
Miami 0 24 Miami Under
Carolina 3 47 Carolina Over
Jacksonville 23 17 Jacksonville Over
New Orleans 13 0 New Orleans Under
Pittsburgh 12 10 Minnesota Under
St. Louis 10 24 St. Louis Under
Arizona 24 0 Arizona Under
Buffalo 20 7 Buffalo Under
San Diego 17 18 Seattle Under

I picked 9 of these right, maybe a good sign. And NOW I know why they hate Indy…

Preseason Week 4

My predictions:

    Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Detroit Buffalo 17 24 Buffalo 7 41
NY Jets Philadelphia 17 20 Philadelphia 3 37
Atlanta Baltimore 20 20 Baltimore 0 40
St. Louis Kansas City 20 26 Kansas City 6 46
New England NY Giants 24 17 New England 7 41
Cincinnati Indianapolis 20 27 Indianapolis 7 47
Jacksonville Washington 17 24 Washington 7 41
Carolina Pittsburgh 17 23 Pittsburgh 6 40
Tennessee Green Bay 20 20 Green Bay 0 40
Chicago Cleveland 20 17 Chicago 3 37
Minnesota Dallas 17 24 Dallas 7 41
Miami New Orleans 20 17 Miami 3 37
Tampa Bay Houston 20 23 Houston 3 43
Denver Arizona 26 27 Arizona 1 53
San Diego San Francisco 27 17 San Diego 10 44
Oakland Seattle 16 27 Seattle 11 43

Vegas line:

 

Favorite Line O/U Away Home
Buffalo 3.0 33.5 15.3 18.3
Philadelphia 3.0 35.5 16.3 19.3
Baltimore 2.5 33.0 15.3 17.8
Kansas City 5.0 34.0 14.5 19.5
NY Giants 2.5 35.0 16.3 18.8
Indianapolis 3.0 34.5 15.8 18.8
Washington 3.0 34.0 15.5 18.5
Pittsburgh 3.5 35.0 15.8 19.3
Tennessee 6.5 36.0 21.3 14.8
Cleveland 3.0 38.0 17.5 20.5
Dallas 3.0 34.0 15.5 18.5
New Orleans 1.0 35.0 17.0 18.0
Houston 0.0 36.5 18.3 18.3
Arizona 3.0 37.5 17.3 20.3
San Francisco 2.5 35.5 16.5 19.0
Seattle 3.0 36.0 16.5 19.5

Bets:

Buffalo Over
Over on NY Jets vs Philadelphia
Atlanta Over
Kansas City
New England Over
Indianapolis Over
Washington Over
Pittsburgh Over
Green Bay Over
Chicago Under
Dallas Over
Miami Over
Houston Over
Denver Over
San Diego Over
Seattle Over

Good bets:

Over on St. Louis vs Kansas City
Over on Cincinnati vs Indianapolis
Over on Denver vs Arizona
San Diego (assuming their offense made the plane…) will stomp San Fran and cover the spread

Week 1

My predictions:

 

    Away Home Favorite Line O/U
Washington NY Giants 17 20 NY Giants 3 37
NY Jets Miami 17 17 Miami 0 34
Detroit Atlanta 20 27 Atlanta 7 47
Jacksonville Tennessee 24 23 Jacksonville 1 47
Tampa Bay New Orleans 17 17 New Orleans 0 34
St. Louis Philadelphia 20 20 Philadelphia 0 40
Houston Pittsburgh 17 24 Pittsburgh 7 41
Kansas City New England 17 27 New England 10 44
Cincinnati Baltimore 20 20 Baltimore 0 40
Seattle Buffalo 24 20 Seattle 4 44
Dallas Cleveland 27 17 Dallas 10 44
Arizona San Francisco 20 20 San Francisco 0 40
Carolina San Diego 20 24 San Diego 4 44
Chicago Indianapolis 20 24 Indianapolis 4 44
Minnesota Green Bay 17 20 Green Bay 3 37
Denver Oakland 20 17 Denver 3 37

That’s as far in the future as I can get. After the real games start, the real work begins, my computer models update based on the outcome of week one. I don’t update them with the preseason games cause I think they will skew the model. There are three teams I expect the model to be wrong about, Green Bay will come out less than predictions because they are missing Favre. Seriously, what were they thinking? “Um no thanks, we don’t want the greatest quarterback of all time to play for us this year.”

Likewise, the Jets will be better than predictions, “Welcome to the team, Mr. Greatest QB Ever!” Even if he doesn’t start, just having his brain over there on their sidelines will improve the team.

And I think Atlanta will be better than predictions, they’ve had time to get over losing Vick. They won’t be great, cause they don’t have a QB as good as Vick, but they will play better cause they begin to realize that the QB is not the only player that makes a team.

E.W.

I started writing this post weeks ago. It is incredibly hard to put a spreadsheet into a blog. Figured it would be easy…